Trends

Changes to Financial reporting standards for private companies.

For fiscal periods beginning January 1, 2011, all businesses reporting under Canadian generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP), will need to prepare their financial statements to be in accordance with either International Reporting Standards (IFRS) or Canadian accounting standards for private enterprises (ASPE). This will include reporting the comparative year under the new framework, and preparing the retroactive adjustments and the related disclosures.

In general, most small to medium sized companies are aware of the change, and have chosen the appropriate accounting framework for their enterprise. In transitioning to either IFRS or ASPE, there are specific provisions to be followed including the principle that any information used to prepare the opening balance sheet and comparative periods be limited to information that was available at the time these periods were originally prepared, and not updated for information received subsequently.

Best practice suggests that the framework chosen was adopted in the comparative year, and run parallel with the Canadian generally accepted accounting standards used in the prior fiscal period.

In cases where management has not yet completed the exercise of transitioning the comparative period within their chosen framework, it would be advisable to increase the priority of this exercise, as it may be a long process depending on the complexity of the enterprise, and their available resources. Furthermore, some of the retroactive adjustments and accounting standards may significantly affect certain financial ratios, and may require management to discuss the impacts with their lenders and equity holders.

Start loving older workers; they'll soon be the norm rather than the exception.

One thing is certain, the population is aging and there’s not much we can do about it. The number of people 65 years and over has gone up by 11.5 per cent since 2001, while the number of Canadians under the age of 15 has dropped by 2.5 per cent. It is estimated that by 2031, 25 per cent of the Canadian population will be over 65 - neither an increase in fertility rates nor higher levels of immigration will radically alter the outcome. Human Resources and Skills Development Canada predicts about 1.4 million jobs will be created between 2008 and 2017 as a result of economic growth, and most of which will require post-secondary education. Due to retirement, HRSDC expects an additional 4.1 million jobs will become available.

Quebec’s long-term economic prospects are dampened by an older population and a shrinking working-age population. The aging of the population will be felt much sooner in Quebec than elsewhere.

A recent Harris/Decima poll found that 69% of Canadians plan to continue working after retirement age; most by choice, but some due to financial necessity. Boomers aren't the only ones who want to see themselves working past 65. Employers also want to hold on to their most seasoned, well-connected employees, knowing that it takes three new workers to replace one knowledgeable and skilled mature worker if a company wants to maintain its current productivity. And with a looming labour shortage, many employers are catering to older workers today to avoid being short-staffed tomorrow.

Grappling with the challenge of urban sprawl

The City of Montreal, like many North American Cities has been grappling with the challenge of urban sprawl. As a means to counteract this phenomenon, the City’s Urban Master Plan, which was adopted in 2004, highlights a number of initiatives that encourage the densification of residential development in urbanized areas and primarily the downtown core where existing infrastructure and public transit is already well established. There has been an extraordinary residential condo boom throughout the island and in downtown Montreal over the past number of years, both for high end luxury buyers, first time home owners, and also for students in areas near the four university campuses of McGill, Concordia, UQAM and Université de Montréal.

With an ever increasing supply and low interest rates, many tenants in rental buildings have opted instead to buy condos. This has put pressure on owners of apartment buildings to improve their buildings or to find incentives in order to retain tenants. There is a need by owners to maintain vacancy rates below a certain level. Often initiatives such as lower rents, free months, or renovations to common areas, give a rental tenant the “feel” of living in a condominium building.. This trend has certainly resulted in an improvement of the housing stock and opportunities for a diversity of quality residential options.

What the future holds for interest and exchange rates

Every Canadian businessman would like to have certainty with regards to the value of the Canadian dollar to allow for long term business planning. Unfortunately, in the current environment, interest rates and the value of our currency are more influenced by external factors than by Canadian fiscal and monetary policies.

Deflationary pressures are still the preoccupation of the governments of most major economies, so they have been printing money on an unprecedented scale. This will inevitably lead to inflation, and the only question is how rapidly and to what extent this will occur. We have started to see inflationary pressures building in the rapidly expanding Asian and Latin American economies.

The traditional way of battling inflation is to tighten monetary supply by increasing interest rates. Since interest rates are at nominal levels in the US, the Euro zone and in Canada, central bankers have lots of room in raising interest rates when inflation exceeds their targets. In Canada, our slightly higher interest rates than those in the US have contributed to the Canadian dollar being valued close to or over par. Our strong dollar, in return tends to depress economic growth, which provides breathing room from further increases in interest rates.

When interest rates will rise south of our border, the effect will be to lower the value of our dollar. However, higher interest rates in the US will also dampen the fragile American economic recovery, so we don’t see much evidence that interest rates will be substantially higher than their current level for at least the next six to twelve months.

Our best guess is, therefore, for the current low interest rate environment to continue for at least the next twelve months, which is good news for borrowers but bad news for retirees and investors. Watch out for asset price inflation (real estate, stocks, and commodities) that low interest rates usually encourage.